物理化学学报 >> 2021, Vol. 37 >> Issue (5): 2008066.doi: 10.3866/PKU.WHXB202008066

所属专题: CO2还原

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通过脱碳控制全球平均温度

Dautzenberg Frits Mathias1,*(), 路勇2, 徐彬3   

  1. 1 Serenix Corporation, 5632 Coppervein Street, Fort Collins, CO 80528, USA
    2 华东师范大学, 化学与分子工程学院,上海市绿色化学与化工过程绿色化重点实验室,上海 200062
    3 易高卓新节能技术(上海)有限公司,上海 201109
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-23 录用日期:2020-09-18 发布日期:2020-09-21
  • 通讯作者: Dautzenberg Frits Mathias E-mail:fritsd@serenixcorp.com

Controlling the Global Mean Temperature by Decarbonization

Frits Mathias Dautzenberg1,*(), Yong Lu2, Bin Xu3   

  1. 1 Serenix Corporation, 5632 Coppervein Street, Fort Collins, CO 80528, USA
    2 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Green Chemistry and Chemical Processes, School of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    3 ECO Zhuo Xin Energy-Saving Technology (Shanghai) Company Limited, Shanghai 201109, China
  • Received:2020-08-23 Accepted:2020-09-18 Published:2020-09-21
  • Contact: Frits Mathias Dautzenberg E-mail:fritsd@serenixcorp.com
  • About author:Frits Mathias Dautzenberg, Email: fritsd@serenixcorp.com

摘要:

建立能可靠预测全球平均温度(Te)的方法,对于寻求政治和全球合作以及大量财政资源来推动CO2减排至关重要。基于可预见的若干年内CO2排放量不能显著降低这一假设,目前的气候模型似乎都预测Te将会持续上升。然而,将大气中的CO2作为多因素地球气候系统的唯一变量,来关联观察到的温度异常,很可能过于简单化了,因为大气中H2O的存在是至少应该要考虑的。受控于太阳活动的大气H2O含量是Te的首要决定因素,其次才是与人类活动相关的CO2排放,而CO2排放将来可能降低。基于地球平均温度观测值和热力学数据,建立了新的预测模型。应用该模型方程,可以分析过去、当前和未来大气中CO2和H2O含量并可计算出相应的Te。这是一个还未见公开报道的、更精确的模型。本模型预测,依据将较基准情景(business-as-usual,BAU),到2050年Te可能上升至15.5 ℃; 通过合理的绿色技术行动方案,Te可能降至约14.2 ℃,预测未来30年CO2可减排513千兆吨。绿色技术应用场景包括诸如各种CO2减排行动,碳捕获,矿化以及生物碳生产等,其中至2050年CO2减排的主要贡献将来自于电力、农业和运输行业。另外,也对更激进的Plausible和Drawdown方案进行了分析,预测未来30年CO2可分别减排1051和1747千兆吨,但这些方案可能会减少全球粮食生产。要强调的是,全球变暖的成因和预测应该视为开放的科学问题,因为涉及与全球变暖相关的物理过程的多个问题仍然无解。例如,太阳活动耦合米兰科维奇(Milankovitch)循环扮演的角色就没有完全理解。还有,海洋对CO2的吸收和火山活动等其他因素的影响,可能无法忽略。

关键词: 全球平均温度计算方法, 大气CO2含量, 大气H2O含量, 全球变暖, CO2减排

Abstract:

Establishing a reliable method to predict the global mean temperature (Te) is of great importance because CO2 reduction activities require political and global cooperation and significant financial resources. The current climate models all seem to predict that the earth's temperature will continue to increase, mainly based on the assumption that CO2 emissions cannot be lowered significantly in the foreseeable future. Given the earth's multifactor climate system, attributing atmospheric CO2 as the only cause for the observed temperature anomaly is most likely an oversimplification; the presence of water (H2O) in the atmosphere should at least be considered. As such, Te is determined by atmospheric water content controlled by solar activity, along with anthropogenic CO2 activities. It is possible that the anthropogenic CO2 activities can be reduced in the future. Based on temperature measurements and thermodynamic data, a new model for predicting Te has been developed. Using this model, past, current, and future CO2 and H2O data can be analyzed and the associated Te calculated. This new, esoteric approach is more accurate than various other models, but has not been reported in the open literature. According to this model, by 2050, Te may increase to 15.5 ℃ under "business-as-usual" emissions. By applying a reasonable green technology activity scenario, Te may be reduced to approximately 14.2 ℃. To achieve CO2 reductions, the scenario described herein predicts a CO2 reduction potential of 513 gigatons in 30 years. This proposed scenario includes various CO2 reduction activities, carbon capturing technology, mineralization, and bio-char production; the most important CO2 reductions by 2050 are expected to be achieved mainly in the electricity, agriculture, and transportation sectors. Other more aggressive and plausible drawdown scenarios have been analyzed as well, yielding CO2 reduction potentials of 1051 and 1747 gigatons, respectively, in 30 years, but they may reduce global food production. It is emphasized that the causes and predictions of the global warming trend should be regarded as open scientific questions because several details concerning the physical processes associated with global warming remain uncertain. For example, the role of solar activities coupled with Milankovitch cycles are not yet fully understood. In addition, other factors, such as ocean CO2 uptake and volcanic activity, may not be negligible.

Key words: Calculation method for global mean temperature, CO2 in the atmosphere, Water in the atmosphere, Global warming, CO2 reduction

MSC2000: 

  • O642