关键词: 全球平均温度计算方法, 大气CO₂含量, 大气H₂O含量, 全球变暖, CO₂减排

Abstract:

Establishing a reliable method to predict the global mean temperature (T_e) is of great importance because CO₂ reduction activities require political and global cooperation and significant financial resources. The current climate models all seem to predict that the earth's temperature will continue to increase, mainly based on the assumption that CO₂ emissions cannot be lowered significantly in the foreseeable future. Given the earth's multifactor climate system, attributing atmospheric CO₂ as the only cause for the observed temperature anomaly is most likely an oversimplification; the presence of water (H₂O) in the atmosphere should at least be considered. As such, T_e is determined by atmospheric water content controlled by solar activity, along with anthropogenic CO₂ activities. It is possible that the anthropogenic CO₂ activities can be reduced in the future. Based on temperature measurements and thermodynamic data, a new model for predicting T_e has been developed. Using this model, past, current, and future CO₂ and H₂O data can be analyzed and the associated T_e calculated. This new, esoteric approach is more accurate than various other models, but has not been reported in the open literature. According to this model, by 2050, T_e may increase to 15.5 ℃ under "business-as-usual" emissions. By applying a reasonable green technology activity scenario, T_e may be reduced to approximately 14.2 ℃. To achieve CO₂ reductions, the scenario described herein predicts a CO₂ reduction potential of 513 gigatons in 30 years. This proposed scenario includes various CO₂ reduction activities, carbon capturing technology, mineralization, and bio-char production; the most important CO₂ reductions by 2050 are expected to be achieved mainly in the electricity, agriculture, and transportation sectors. Other more aggressive and plausible drawdown scenarios have been analyzed as well, yielding CO₂ reduction potentials of 1051 and 1747 gigatons, respectively, in 30 years, but they may reduce global food production. It is emphasized that the causes and predictions of the global warming trend should be regarded as open scientific questions because several details concerning the physical processes associated with global warming remain uncertain. For example, the role of solar activities coupled with Milankovitch cycles are not yet fully understood. In addition, other factors, such as ocean CO₂ uptake and volcanic activity, may not be negligible.

Key words: Calculation method for global mean temperature, CO₂ in the atmosphere, Water in the atmosphere, Global warming, CO₂ reduction